Energy transition

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By 2050, electricity will account for 36% of the global energy mix, with 38% and 31% of that electricity supplied by solar PV and wind, respectively.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

Renewables expenditure is expected to double over the next ten years to more than 1300 billion USD per year, and grid expenditure is likely to exceed 1000 billion USD per year in 2030.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

Nuclear production will be slightly boosted by energy security concerns, withs a modest 13% uptick between 2022 and 2050. However, its share of the electricity mix will still drop down from 10% to 5% by 2050.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

The short-term increase of coal consumption driven by lower-income countries will not prevent it from rapidly exiting the energy mix with its peak back in 2014.  Oil has been approaching a plateau for some years and it will start to decline sharply from 2030 onwards.  As a consequence of the war in Ukraine, global gas consumption will be lower than previously forecast – although natural gas will be the single largest energy source by 2048.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

Despite the geopolitical and economic turmoil of 2022, 74% of 400 senior energy professionals contacted in 75 countries believe that the energy transition has either accelerated (45%) or not slowed (29%)

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Industry Insights - Future-proofing our power grids)

Reaching net zero globally in 2050 will require certain regions and sectors to go to net zero much faster. OECD regions must achieve net zero by 2043 and net negative thereafter (thanks to carbon capture and removal), and China needs to reduce emissions to zero by 2050. Some sectors like electricity production will need to reach net zero before 2050, while others, like cement and aviation will still have remaining emissions. The maritime sector needs to reduce emissions by 95% by 2050.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

To attain net zero globally by 2050, no new oil and gas use should arise after 2024 in high income countries and after 2028 in middle- and low-income countries; renewables investment needs to triple and grid investment must grow by more than 50% over the next 10 years.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

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