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Hydrogen Forecast to 2050: graphs and pictures ↓

The share of hydrogen in the energy mix will only be 0.5% in 2030 and 5% in 2050. However, to meet Paris Agreement targets, hydrogen uptake needs to triple to meet 15% of energy demand by mid-century.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)

Electricity-based green hydrogen will account for 72% of production by 2050.

This will require a surplus of renewable energy, to power an electrolyser capacity of 3,100 GW – more than twice the total installed generation capacity of solar and wind in 2022.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)

Blue hydrogen has a greater role to play in the shorter term (around 30% of total production in 2030), but its competitiveness will reduce as renewable energy capacity increases and prices drop.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)

Global spend on producing hydrogen for energy purposes from now until 2050 will be USD 6.8 tn, with an additional USD 180 bn spent on hydrogen pipelines and USD 530 bn on building and operating ammonia terminals.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)

Cost considerations will lead to more than 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed from natural gas pipelines, as the cost to repurpose pipelines is expected to be just 10-35% of new construction costs.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)

Early uptake of hydrogen will be led by hard-to-abate, high-heat manufacturing processes such as iron and steel production which currently use coal and natural gas. Hydrogen derivatives, such as ammonia and methanol, are key to decarbonizing heavy transport like shipping and aviation, but these fuels won’t scale until the 2030s.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)

The uptake of hydrogen by 2050 will differ significantly by region, heavily influenced by policy:

Europe is the forerunner with hydrogen set to take 11% of the energy mix by 2050,
OECD Pacific (8%) and North America (7%) regions also have strategies, targets, and funding pushing the supply-side, but have lower carbon-prices and less concrete targets and policies.
Greater China (6%) follows on, recently providing more clarity on funding and hydrogen prospects towards 2035, coupled with an expanding national emissions trading scheme.

These four regions will together consume two-thirds of global hydrogen demand for energy purposes by 2050.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)

By 2050, a little more than 1 TW capacity of solar PV will exist exclusively producing hydrogen, the majority of which will be in Greater China and the Indian Subcontinent. About 260 GW of off-grid solar capacity will be installed to provide electricity in hard-to-reach districts of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian Subcontinent.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)