Key highlights
SHORT TERM
1. High energy prices and a greater focus on energy security due to the war in Ukraine will not slow the long-term transition
- Europe aims to accelerate its renewables build-out to achieve energy security
- In the rest of the world, tackling high energy and food prices may shift decarbonization down the list of priorities in the short term
- The long-term influence of the war on the pace of the energy transition is low compared with main long-term drivers of change: plunging renewables costs, electrification, and rising carbon prices
2. COP26 and the IPCC have called for urgent action which has not materialized: emissions remain at record levels
- Emissions must fall by 8% each year to secure net zero by 2050
- Opportunities for intensified action abound – the transition is opening up unprecedented opportunities for new and existing players in the energy space
LONG-TERM FORECAST
3. Electricity remains the mainstay of the transition; it is growing and greening everywhere
- With an 83% share of the electricity system in 2050, renewables are squeezing the fossil share of the overall energy mix to just below the 50% mark in 2050
- Despite short-term raw material cost challenges, the capacity growth of solar and wind is unstoppable: by 2050 they will have grown 20-fold and 10-fold, respectively
4. Hydrogen only supplies 5% of global energy demand in 2050, a third of the level needed for net zero
- Pure hydrogen use scales in manufacturing from the early 2030s and in derivative form (ammonia, e-methanol and other e-fuels) in heavy transport from the late 2030s
- Green hydrogen from dedicated renewables and from the grid will become dominant over time; blue hydrogen and blue ammonia retain important roles in the long term
PATHWAY TO NET ZERO
5. We are heading towards a 2.2°c warming; war-footing policy implementation is needed to secure net zero by 2050
- Massive, early action to curb record emissions is critical; the window to act is closing
- No new oil and gas will be needed after 2024 in high income countries, and after 2028 in middle- and low-income countries.
6. Net zero means leading regions and sectors have to go much further and faster
- OECD regions must be net zero by 2043 and net negative thereafter; China needs to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050
- Renewable electricity, hydrogen and bioenergy are essential, but insufficient: almost a quarter of net decarbonization relies on carbon capture and removal combined with land-use changes (reduced deforestation)
Independent view
DNV was founded 158 years ago to safeguard life, property, and the environment. We are owned by a foundation and are trusted by a wide range of customers to advance the safety and sustainability of their businesses. 70% of our business is related to the production, generation, transmission, and transport of energy. Developing an independent understanding of, and forecasting, the energy transition is of strategic importance to both us and our customers. This Outlook draws on the expertise of over 100 professionals in DNV. In addition, we are very grateful for the assistance provided by a number of external experts.
