Oil and gas

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In 2022, 80% of capital expenditure (capex) in the Blue Economy is invested in the offshore oil and gas sector, but by 2050 that number will have dropped to 25%.  By then, offshore wind will receive the largest investments, accounting for half of all capex.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Ocean’s Future to 2050)

The short-term increase of coal consumption driven by lower-income countries will not prevent it from rapidly exiting the energy mix with its peak back in 2014.  Oil has been approaching a plateau for some years and it will start to decline sharply from 2030 onwards.  As a consequence of the war in Ukraine, global gas consumption will be lower than previously forecast – although natural gas will be the single largest energy source by 2048.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

Reaching net zero globally in 2050 will require certain regions and sectors to go to net zero much faster. OECD regions must achieve net zero by 2043 and net negative thereafter (thanks to carbon capture and removal), and China needs to reduce emissions to zero by 2050. Some sectors like electricity production will need to reach net zero before 2050, while others, like cement and aviation will still have remaining emissions. The maritime sector needs to reduce emissions by 95% by 2050.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

To attain net zero globally by 2050, no new oil and gas use should arise after 2024 in high income countries and after 2028 in middle- and low-income countries ; renewables investment needs to triple and grid investment must grow by more than 50% over the next 10 years.

(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)

Early in 2022, 52% of oil and gas executives said that their organization would make acceptable profits if oil prices averaged USD 40 to USD 50 per barrel. In December 2022 and January 2023, only 39% felt the same, as a record year of profits for the oil and gas industry redefined the sector’s perception of acceptable profits.

(Source: DNV, 2023, Trilemma and Transition: The momentum to break barriers)

Out of over 1,300 senior energy professionals surveyed in December 2022 and January 2023, 53% of respondents from the oil and gas industry say that their organization will increase investment in gas in 2023, up eight percentage points year-on-year. Some 43% expect to increase investment in oil, up nine percentage points.

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