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The growth of solar PV has been remarkable: 1 GW per year was installed for the first time in 2004, 10 GW added in 2010, 100 GW in 2019, and 150 GW in 2021. We about 550 GW per year of net capacity additions by 2040. In 2050, total installed capacity will be 24 times greater than in 2020.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
23 PWh per year of solar electricity will be generated globally in 2050.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
Within a decade, about one fifth of all PV installed will be with dedicated storage, and by mid-century this share will have risen to half.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
In 2050, total installed capacity will be 9.5 TW for solar PV and 5 TW for solar+storage. The resulting 14.5 TW amounts to more than half (54%) of all installed capacity globally.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
While solar will have a share of 54% of installed capacity in 2050, it will account for 30% of global on-grid electricity generation.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
The global weighted average levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar PV is currently around USD 50/MWh for solar and USD 120/MWh for solar+storage. In the case of solar PV, it’s expected to reduce to around USD 30/MWh by mid-century, with individual project costs well below USD 20/MWh.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
The main driver for LCOE decrease is the reduction of unit investments costs, which are around USD 900/kW as a global average now. This will fall significantly with every doubling of solar PV installation globally, reaching USD 650/kW in 2050.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
The panel cost-learning rate for solar PV will remain high throughout our forecast period. It is currently 26%, and while that rate will decline to 17% in 2050, solar PV will be in unassailable position as the cheapest source of new electricity globally. The OPEX-learning rate of 9% is expected to remain unchanged until mid-century.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
The levelized cost of solar+storage is currently more than double that of solar PV without storage. A continuous decline in battery prices will narrow this gap to around 50% by mid-century.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)
By 2050, a little more than 1 TW capacity of solar PV will exist exclusively producing hydrogen, the majority of which will be in Greater China and the Indian Subcontinent. About 260 GW of off-grid solar capacity will be installed to provide electricity in hard-to-reach districts of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian Subcontinent.
(Source: DNV, 2022, Energy Transition Outlook)