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Wind will have growing shares in all regions. In 2050, 33% of grid-connected electricity supply will be wind-based: 20% onshore wind, 11% bottom-fixed offshore wind, and 2% floating offshore wind.
Installed capacity was around 709 GW at the beginning of 2020 and will reach 1 TW in 2022, 2 TW in 2029, 4 TW in 2043, and 5.9 TW in 2050, of which 1.7 TW will be offshore.
Continued increases in turbine, blade, and tower sizes will lead to improvements in the capacity factors, bringing the world average for onshore wind turbines to 31% by 2050. For offshore wind turbines, the average capacity factor is already 34%, due to the more favourable wind conditions offshore. We expect this to rise to 50% by 2050.
By 2050, levelized cost of energy (LOCE) will be reduced by
In 2022, 80% of capital expenditure (capex) in the Blue Economy is invested in the offshore oil and gas sector, but by 2050 that number will have dropped to 25%. By then, offshore wind will receive the largest investments, accounting for half of all capex. (Source: DNV, 2022, Ocean’s Future to 2050)
Offshore wind will rise globally from 8% of total wind production in 2020 to 34% in 2050, totalling almost 2000 GW.
(Source, DNV, 2023, Floating Wind: Turning Ambition into Action)
By mid-century, the contribution of floating offshore wind is expected to represent 6% of the offshore wind share, with a total installed capacity of about 300 GW, requiring around 20,000 turbines.
(Source, DNV, 2023, Floating Wind: Turning Ambition into Action)
Over 80% of industry leaders are confident that floating offshore wind reach commercial profitability without subsidies by 2040, 60% think it will happen by 2035 and 25% think it will be as early as 2030. Public policy is consistently pointed out as one of the most determining factors for the development of floating offshore wind farms.
(Source, DNV, 2023, Floating Wind: Turning Ambition into Action)
Reaching full commercialization will depend, in part, on the investment potential of key markets. Market size was cited by 21% of respondents as the first criteria for choosing a market to invest in, followed by regulatory and political stability (16%), and power grid suitability (12%).
(Source, DNV, 2023, Floating Wind: Turning Ambition into Action)
For floating offshore wind to scale-up, it is paramount that its levelized cost of energy (LCOE) drops as much and as quickly as possible. DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook forecasts that levelized costs for floating offshore wind will fall by almost 80% by 2050. 21% of survey respondents believe that standardization - either through a reduction in the number of concepts or the emergence of a preferable concept will be the biggest factor for LCOE reduction. Bigger turbines and industrialization come next, closely followed by larger wind farms (allowing for economies of scale and greater installed capacity).
(Source, DNV, 2023, Floating Wind: Turning Ambition into Action)
The top risk cited by floating wind professionals was a lack of port infrastructure. The second biggest risk cited was installation vessel availability, tied with capacity. While floating wind is generally not reliant on the advanced and bespoke vessels used in bottom-fixed offshore wind, the sheer number of mooring and anchoring installation vessels and the capabilities required could be a challenge for the industry, as more moorings and anchors are set to be installed over the next 10 years than have ever been seen in the oil and gas industry.
(Source, DNV, 2023, Floating Wind: Turning Ambition into Action)
To mitigate the investment risks associated with new technologies, industry leaders believe that the prime lever of action is technology standardization (22%). The other main mitigating factors are regulatory stability (18%), and more certainty in operations and maintenance (O&M, cited first by 15% of respondents).
(Source, DNV, 2023, Floating Wind: Turning Ambition into Action)